四月第一星期

四月一開始港股就因PMI好過預期勁升超過一千點。組合這一浪開始跟唔上。主要是主力的Reits回氣，指數股只有平保同中銀香港力挺。

平了1109,27,2333的Short Put，清了1038換了長和同新創建。2588竟然大幅回升，息率也未免低了一點，之前沽了選擇了中飛以乎要再等一下。正通同建滔板也有回升。加了808,特步。Short Put 了 2388,939,1。短炒1030也失敗。暫時再冇動作，美股S-Reits 也是等業績。

組合MTD + 1.28%
HSI MTD  + 3.53%

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三月結

三月份中美談判繼續加時，Brexit未有結果似乎又是加時。三月份出現了兩次警號，第一次是中美談判不明朗加大行唱淡，結果極速以島形回升，第二次是美國三月同十年國債息率倒掛結果又無事。似乎甚有狼來了的意味，相信第三或第四次警號之後就會認真調整一次二千至三千點。策略上手上股票暫時不估頂，期權以保守行使價為主，月中睇位以熊跨作對冲部置，大约在29500-29600之間。可以換貨但不可加注，四月尾減所有投機注碼。

市場仍然是高息股作主題，由加息變減息，重要歐洲唔知會唔會刻水，Smart Money 追逐可靠的yield回報仍然是往多的炒作主題。 5G暫時也靜下來了，有機會再作部置。

組合三月回報4.28%。

港股方面，回報主要由一堆Reits帶動，加上太古B同白雲山業绩被市場受落升了不小。太古B因國泰表現好轉再加派息，相信再有得去，期望同太古A折讓收窄。

交易方面，賣出了一手長建換了領展。短炒6869，384，2588，冇收獲。其中6869一走了就崩 盤極為好彩。投機部分入了新城博破頂，一有風吹草動就要走。中長線入了正通同建滔。659，1848，369，就是認為市場會向次一级收息股進發。平保就是業績帶動。

一堆S-Reits 連連破頂，加注的機會都冇。今個月硬加了ME8U

美股方面，加倉了AAPL, BA, BABA, CRM, GOOG,MSFT,NVDA,VISA,WDAY, 平了GOOS 同XNET。基本上暫時也不再加了。

平安2018的業績

平安的業績真令人吃驚
 
內含價值10,024.56億
新業務價值 722.94億

公司價值 = (10024億+723X10) / 0.854 = 20203.74億
A+H 182.8億股

極值20203.74/182.8=$HKD110.5
殘值10024/0.854/182.8=$HKD64.2

 現價合理

SHK 16 分析

16 号仔，多年估值上下限不大，要提高回報就要盡量買在估值底部。用Price / NAV model 計

如今年估值上限 186 * 0.76 = 141.36
            估值下限 186 * 0.58 = 107.88

現價130 水位有限

IB 二月結

又一個月過去，大市繼續挾淡倉，中間冇明顯回調。上到BB中線，最高穿過29000，由一月低位已升超4000 點。

組合二月Return 3.21%，跑贏恆指 2.71%, S&P500 2.95%, 跑輸DJA 3.66% ,  NASDAQ 3.44%

佔组合貢獻最大是 1038 3.31%, SSW PRH 8.04%, SSW PRI 5.73%, 435 6.96%, 2778 5.55%, 2388 8.97%

美股方面 Visa 9.62%, GOOS 10.63%,  BABA 8.06%, XNET 18.22%

Options 表現差勁，二月MHI Hedging 27400/27600 變廢紙，GOOS Long Call 61.5 打巴，電能Long Call 應用價內下月，用OTM 即月結果得 56 蚊。


本月Trading ，再做三月Hedge 27800/28000
5G 短炒2342, 947,732 收 $1058
S-Reits 加了 2000 RW0U@1.24, 3000 M44U@1.37

美股 AAPL@174.2, BABA@182.8, C.PRN@ 26.2, SSW PRH@ 22.3, SSW PRI@ 22.5, VCLT@88.04, XNET@3.96

本月Missed Chance 3147, 6869, 1883


Fed Dividends, AAPL + RWOU = HKD140.67
Interest Paid = HKD 164.26
Option Fee = HKD 25

期內435, 2778 業績理想，由778換馬再加注正確。405負債增加。823繼續升到開花。


三月展望
2018 Short June Put 38@1.89
 27 ~50-51
16~ 120-122
700~310
如果去到29500再加淡

IB YTD Result

Period: 2 Jan --- 6 Feb
Cumulative Return 8.77%

Trade Summary:
Options ( Short Put 2388, 11, 1868, LC 1810, Bear Spread)

Short put all win, LC cut half, Bear Spread all lost

Buy:
1658, 2342, 2778, 435, M44u, Rw0U, AAPL, BABA, C PRN, GOOS, HSBC PRA, NOK, SSW PRH, V

Sell:
778 

Net increase exposure = 112407

Dividends, 1069.54 from SSW

Interest Payment: -272.37

Fee -50

Impression:
Benefit from change of interest hike expectation, high yield dividend stock show V shape rebounce. The beta can catch up with HSI despite holding some cash position. Starting to accumulate US stocks. Add bear spread at January end to hedge the position.