五月過山車

五月開局本來一片光明，不過貪勝不知輸，月初睇指數有上升動力，一路有做的指數熊跨就想等上到30500先開，結果比特Thanos突襲，一個星期跌左3.74%。而家美股減了六成倉位，港股因二線股跌幅已近殘價而且注碼有控制暫時要坐，平保因為季績大好再在高位追回一半，而家買了LP作保險。長和就已經價殘，SP@77.5如果入價就接。所有REITS繼續坐同以股代息，新加了BTOU作為美國REITS的Exposure。

貿戰不知會怎樣，經過上次美股後來追跌的經驗，只剩四成倉位，而家是比較輕鬆，再看看後續發展再決定補回。

今次突襲基本上硬食了，學費交了當然要寫低佢:

1. 四月時因组合跑輸HSI，心急加了長和，同幾隻二線股，果然財不入急門。

2. 對冲不可以等最高位做，因為目的是保險而非希望賺錢。

3. 星期一基本上反應不來，應果斷減倉，貪心想博假跌。

4. 今次冇用指數期權，有了上年經驗，市場混亂時，指數完全可以亂Chok。今次用自己倉位的OTM LP 買保險就算了。

政治市基本上冇得估，不過利息就一定冇得升，再有可能放水。倉位會繼續高息股，REITS，Baby Bonds. 再跌就找本地股買或SP。

HK: 16, 27, 2, 2318, 2601, 2388, 11, 1299, 700, 1030,

S-REITS: RW0U, M44U, Me8U, BTOU

US: Visa, AMZN, GOOS, MSFT, APPL, NVDA, CRM, WDAY

四月結

四月組合回報 1.54%，跑輸恆指2.25%

四月一開局因PMI 超預期，突破了三萬點，見今年高位，遇上阻力結果在高位徘。700 一度見$400，之後就小幅回落。地產及REITS也回落了導致本月回報跑輸了。幸好白雲山同平保一路強勢拉高了组合。特步、長和、建滔板、泓富、新創建表現最差。

期權方面，止賺了長汽銀娛的SP. Long Call 恆大有收獲。

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Tencent 分析

2018 EPS 9.525 HKD。Profit Margin 最高的遊戲業務增幅減少至大約15%，網絡廣告同其他收入保特高速增長，但因Profit Margin 較低，利潤提振較少。今年除非食雞有得賺錢，遊戲業務都是低增幅，估計全年EPS 升20%，大約 $11.5，三十倍PE=$345，廿五倍PE=287.5，三十五倍PE=402.5，四十倍PE=460。破四百要有重大利好消息或市場氣氛極熱。

跌破29900

HSI 跌破29900，要風險管理一些，增加現金水平。先平了939 Short Put + Long Call，博追落後失敗，再止賺了平保，大市之後要升必有平保的份，往後必要補回。美股止賺了WDAY，減少少NVDA CRM。減少少攻擊股，提升了現金，往後回調有機會再加。事實上最近價位巳很難買得落手。

保護自己的錢

Whatsapp Group 上轉來XXX公司的廣告，話借一球给他們一年有八厘是fixed Income 的product。其實蝦人唔識，冇抵押冇評级冇第二市場冇公司盤數睇，講個信字借一球，要買我寧願信女首富買恆大債，10.5厘啊。希望唔是迷債翻版。投資千萬要小心，保護本金最重要。

四月第一星期

四月一開始港股就因PMI好過預期勁升超過一千點。組合這一浪開始跟唔上。主要是主力的Reits回氣，指數股只有平保同中銀香港力挺。

平了1109,27,2333的Short Put，清了1038換了長和同新創建。2588竟然大幅回升，息率也未免低了一點，之前沽了選擇了中飛以乎要再等一下。正通同建滔板也有回升。加了808,特步。Short Put 了 2388,939,1。短炒1030也失敗。暫時再冇動作，美股S-Reits 也是等業績。

組合MTD + 1.28%
HSI MTD  + 3.53%