69,612,616 之我感

本星期因香港的情况，感到傷心，失望及憤怒。

一路以來也偏向政治冷感，但今次逃犯條例因影響每一個人就不得關注。政府的一意孤行，意見接受態度照舊，令人心寒。

有人鬧學生612暴力，但政府百萬人遊行也不理，照硬推上馬。老實說如果不是製造混亂去阻止，今天條例已經通過了。萬事也有因果。

每個人也從自身情况去看事情。中老年人經歷了香港最美好的時代，名成利就，自然希望現狀維持下去。年青人面對物價飛升，學位QE，國内精英的競爭，自然灰心，當失望成了絕望，自然希望打破困境。所以他們自然就會對立。

政治就是妥協的藝術，只有一人行前一步才有可能化解，希望有大智慧者領導香港。

天佑我城

五月結

五月由一開始恆指超過三萬點，一支大陰燭二千七百九十點，打穿了保歷加通道月線中線。固然是因為貿易戰重啓，再來加深環球經濟的憂慮。華為的事件更打擊了科技板瑰，組合冇可避免受到一定的傷害。

本月组合:-5.97% 相對恆指 -8.41% 的跌幅只是輕微好少少。

港股方面未有在跌八百點那一天狠心斬倉，令组合損失比預期大。特步，正通，建滔，中飛，二三線股是潮退時好難捱。長和也因Brexit 回落但因估值低，也可以守。新創建也十分失望，發揮不了避險功能。比較好是在高位走了平保再Long Put。Long Put 恆生也成功。

组合了700 正股+Short Put, 2601正股，2628 Short Put, 1093 Short Put

2388 Short Put 結算接了兩手，再在30元再Short Put。

美股方面，由於與港股有時間差，也成功在相對高位走了 AAPL, MSFT, V, NVDA, GOOS, BABA。BABA 業績大好，在165元開始建倉。

S REITS 加了Manulife US Reits 增加了美國房地產的Exposure

五月過山車

五月開局本來一片光明，不過貪勝不知輸，月初睇指數有上升動力，一路有做的指數熊跨就想等上到30500先開，結果比特Thanos突襲，一個星期跌左3.74%。而家美股減了六成倉位，港股因二線股跌幅已近殘價而且注碼有控制暫時要坐，平保因為季績大好再在高位追回一半，而家買了LP作保險。長和就已經價殘，SP@77.5如果入價就接。所有REITS繼續坐同以股代息，新加了BTOU作為美國REITS的Exposure。

貿戰不知會怎樣，經過上次美股後來追跌的經驗，只剩四成倉位，而家是比較輕鬆，再看看後續發展再決定補回。

今次突襲基本上硬食了，學費交了當然要寫低佢:

1. 四月時因组合跑輸HSI，心急加了長和，同幾隻二線股，果然財不入急門。

2. 對冲不可以等最高位做，因為目的是保險而非希望賺錢。

3. 星期一基本上反應不來，應果斷減倉，貪心想博假跌。

4. 今次冇用指數期權，有了上年經驗，市場混亂時，指數完全可以亂Chok。今次用自己倉位的OTM LP 買保險就算了。

政治市基本上冇得估，不過利息就一定冇得升，再有可能放水。倉位會繼續高息股，REITS，Baby Bonds. 再跌就找本地股買或SP。

HK: 16, 27, 2, 2318, 2601, 2388, 11, 1299, 700, 1030,

S-REITS: RW0U, M44U, Me8U, BTOU

US: Visa, AMZN, GOOS, MSFT, APPL, NVDA, CRM, WDAY

四月結

四月組合回報 1.54%，跑輸恆指2.25%

四月一開局因PMI 超預期，突破了三萬點，見今年高位，遇上阻力結果在高位徘。700 一度見$400，之後就小幅回落。地產及REITS也回落了導致本月回報跑輸了。幸好白雲山同平保一路強勢拉高了组合。特步、長和、建滔板、泓富、新創建表現最差。

期權方面，止賺了長汽銀娛的SP. Long Call 恆大有收獲。

Terms and condition

 

Terms & Conditions

T&C

Please read the following carefully. If you need to contact us regarding any aspect of the following terms of use of our website, please contact us through the contact form.

By visiting the content of 80msociety (hereinafter referred to as this site), you will agree to all the terms and conditions of use listed here, and accept the privacy policy set by us without reservation. If you do not agree with any of the following terms and conditions, you should not continue to use the site and please terminate your visit to this site immediately.

You agree not to use this website for any illegal or unethical purposes, and you will abide by all applicable laws and regulations of any local country or region.

You agree not to use 80msociety blog site in a manner that may impair performance, destroy or manipulate the content or information available on this site, or reduce the overall functionality of the site.

You agree that you will not compromise the security of the website or will not attempt to access the secure areas of this site, nor will you attempt to access any sensitive information that you believe exists on the hosted website or server.

You agree to take full responsibility for any claims, expenses, losses, liabilities, and expenses including legal fees arising from the violation of the terms and conditions in this agreement. If you continue to use this website, you will agree to be responsible for this.

This site strictly prohibits any party from copying and distributing in any way (online or offline). The works on the website as well as images, logos, text and other such information are the property and intellectual property rights of 80msociety.blogspot.com (unless otherwise stated).

 

Disclaimer

All content provided on this site is our personal effort and knowledge sharing. All decisions must be made after careful consideration and professional opinions. This site will not attach any responsibility for the profit or loss of any person or any aspect.

Although this site strives to make the information displayed on our site completely accurate and tries to keep it as up-to-date as possible, in some cases, some of the information you find on the site may be out of date.

80msociety reserves the right to make any changes or corrections to the information you find on the website at any time without notice.

This site also reserves the right to change and modify the above terms and conditions of use.

Tencent 分析

2018 EPS 9.525 HKD。Profit Margin 最高的遊戲業務增幅減少至大約15%，網絡廣告同其他收入保特高速增長，但因Profit Margin 較低，利潤提振較少。今年除非食雞有得賺錢，遊戲業務都是低增幅，估計全年EPS 升20%，大約 $11.5，三十倍PE=$345，廿五倍PE=287.5，三十五倍PE=402.5，四十倍PE=460。破四百要有重大利好消息或市場氣氛極熱。

跌破29900

HSI 跌破29900，要風險管理一些，增加現金水平。先平了939 Short Put + Long Call，博追落後失敗，再止賺了平保，大市之後要升必有平保的份，往後必要補回。美股止賺了WDAY，減少少NVDA CRM。減少少攻擊股，提升了現金，往後回調有機會再加。事實上最近價位巳很難買得落手。