六月結

大市在六月初在26800 水平見底，組合成功加了700,2601,3883,386,2007。月尾G20習特會也有正面消息，而美股先一步炒減息回升了。


本月组合: +5.83% 相對恆指 + 6.69% 的升幅低。

特步回升了，正通還在低位幸好倉位很少，建滔損失比較大因倉位不少，但已近殘值下半年希望好轉，中飛就希望下半年減息有機會再上。長和Short Put 成功平手走了。新創建繼續失望。

700 正股+Short Put 雙嬴, 2601正股Ok，2628 Short Put 也有利潤, 1093 Short Put 平了兩手。

美股方面，BABA 依計劃開始建倉。也加了Store Capital 同AMD。

S REITS 繼續升，下次派息會用作還Margin 息。

69,612,616 之我感

本星期因香港的情况，感到傷心，失望及憤怒。

一路以來也偏向政治冷感，但今次逃犯條例因影響每一個人就不得關注。政府的一意孤行，意見接受態度照舊，令人心寒。

有人鬧學生612暴力，但政府百萬人遊行也不理，照硬推上馬。老實說如果不是製造混亂去阻止，今天條例已經通過了。萬事也有因果。

每個人也從自身情况去看事情。中老年人經歷了香港最美好的時代，名成利就，自然希望現狀維持下去。年青人面對物價飛升，學位QE，國内精英的競爭，自然灰心，當失望成了絕望，自然希望打破困境。所以他們自然就會對立。

政治就是妥協的藝術，只有一人行前一步才有可能化解，希望有大智慧者領導香港。

天佑我城

五月結

五月由一開始恆指超過三萬點，一支大陰燭二千七百九十點，打穿了保歷加通道月線中線。固然是因為貿易戰重啓，再來加深環球經濟的憂慮。華為的事件更打擊了科技板瑰，組合冇可避免受到一定的傷害。

本月组合:-5.97% 相對恆指 -8.41% 的跌幅只是輕微好少少。

港股方面未有在跌八百點那一天狠心斬倉，令组合損失比預期大。特步，正通，建滔，中飛，二三線股是潮退時好難捱。長和也因Brexit 回落但因估值低，也可以守。新創建也十分失望，發揮不了避險功能。比較好是在高位走了平保再Long Put。Long Put 恆生也成功。

组合了700 正股+Short Put, 2601正股，2628 Short Put, 1093 Short Put

2388 Short Put 結算接了兩手，再在30元再Short Put。

美股方面，由於與港股有時間差，也成功在相對高位走了 AAPL, MSFT, V, NVDA, GOOS, BABA。BABA 業績大好，在165元開始建倉。

S REITS 加了Manulife US Reits 增加了美國房地產的Exposure

五月過山車

五月開局本來一片光明，不過貪勝不知輸，月初睇指數有上升動力，一路有做的指數熊跨就想等上到30500先開，結果比特Thanos突襲，一個星期跌左3.74%。而家美股減了六成倉位，港股因二線股跌幅已近殘價而且注碼有控制暫時要坐，平保因為季績大好再在高位追回一半，而家買了LP作保險。長和就已經價殘，SP@77.5如果入價就接。所有REITS繼續坐同以股代息，新加了BTOU作為美國REITS的Exposure。

貿戰不知會怎樣，經過上次美股後來追跌的經驗，只剩四成倉位，而家是比較輕鬆，再看看後續發展再決定補回。

今次突襲基本上硬食了，學費交了當然要寫低佢:

1. 四月時因组合跑輸HSI，心急加了長和，同幾隻二線股，果然財不入急門。

2. 對冲不可以等最高位做，因為目的是保險而非希望賺錢。

3. 星期一基本上反應不來，應果斷減倉，貪心想博假跌。

4. 今次冇用指數期權，有了上年經驗，市場混亂時，指數完全可以亂Chok。今次用自己倉位的OTM LP 買保險就算了。

政治市基本上冇得估，不過利息就一定冇得升，再有可能放水。倉位會繼續高息股，REITS，Baby Bonds. 再跌就找本地股買或SP。

HK: 16, 27, 2, 2318, 2601, 2388, 11, 1299, 700, 1030,

S-REITS: RW0U, M44U, Me8U, BTOU

US: Visa, AMZN, GOOS, MSFT, APPL, NVDA, CRM, WDAY

四月結

四月組合回報 1.54%，跑輸恆指2.25%

四月一開局因PMI 超預期，突破了三萬點，見今年高位，遇上阻力結果在高位徘。700 一度見$400，之後就小幅回落。地產及REITS也回落了導致本月回報跑輸了。幸好白雲山同平保一路強勢拉高了组合。特步、長和、建滔板、泓富、新創建表現最差。

期權方面，止賺了長汽銀娛的SP. Long Call 恆大有收獲。

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Tencent 分析

2018 EPS 9.525 HKD。Profit Margin 最高的遊戲業務增幅減少至大約15%，網絡廣告同其他收入保特高速增長，但因Profit Margin 較低，利潤提振較少。今年除非食雞有得賺錢，遊戲業務都是低增幅，估計全年EPS 升20%，大約 $11.5，三十倍PE=$345，廿五倍PE=287.5，三十五倍PE=402.5，四十倍PE=460。破四百要有重大利好消息或市場氣氛極熱。