樓1 Due Diligence

決定 make offer 之前，有上網做due diligence

先了解Birmingham 這一個城市，位於中部地區，人口為第二大城。傳统為工業重鎮。自從英國 Northern Powerhouse 計劃以來，北部城市特別是Manchester，有快速的增長。Birmingham 位置上是HS2高鐵的中間站，未來只要45分鐘直達Euston Station, 成為一小時生活圈。坐高鐵即日來回倫敦開會也可以。將來會受惠溢出效應，部分公司會由倫敦搬到北部，暫時看最受惠是Manchester，不過有高鐵後，Birmingham 有機會追上。Birmingham 交通方面，最大問題是國際缐不足。不過機場跑道可以容許A380降落，如果日後需求增加有機會增加航點。

University of Birmingham 雖然不是一级名校，但學生人數超過三萬，有八千多個國際學生，有強勁的住房需要。而且NHS 教學大醫院也在這裡，整個城市的未來發展也有保証。

從樓價圖看，倫敦自2009金融海嘯之後，受惠QE放水首先升上高位，2016 Brexit 一路高位整固，而Birmingham 同 Manchester 無受Brexit 影響，平穩向上,升幅健康。相信Brexit之後，比倫敦的 potential downside 較少。而且樓價平倫敦一半，注碼少了，更可以分段分散投資。

買入樓1

緣起兩年前,英磅因Brexit 大跌，加上香港樓市首期印花稅等等的原因，興起了投資英國樓的想法。隔山買牛，甚麼也不懂，身邊有些富有朋友也有親朋有投資經驗，但也只是在香港展銷會上買倫敦新樓，自己也去過那些展銷會，甚麼保證七厘回報，真覺也是羊毛出自羊身上，找水魚的多。

之後内子找到了一個外國的物業投資班，瞻粗粗的報了，原來英國樓玩法同香港不一樣。香港那一套只適用於倫敦，主要是炒升值。其他英國樓的玩法變化多端，做發展商都有得玩。夏天時去了英國實地考察，公司銀行户口也開了，但之後有了兒子，忙得不可開交，英國人做野又慢，結果不了了之。

及後今年香港形勢的變化，投資海外分散風險，變得迫切。再者Brexit 也似過了最黑暗的時期，英磅也見底了。同家人討論完決定去馬。但因第一次注碼決定不要太大，(其實相同價錢在香港連車位也買不到。

Agent 按我們的Budget找了幾個樓盤，最後決定買Birmingham的一個Two Bed Semi-detached，由於近醫院同大學，租務應也不錯，暫時末Complete transaction, 之後也會裝修再出租。

十一月結

月頭港股原本氣勢幾好，似有挑戰28000的機會。在低位用孖展加的倉位表現不倍，可惜又一次比Trump Trump 打落來，結果要大力减倉，清了一部份的香港REITS同港銀。

Sold: 1299,1848,1888,1997,2007,2318,2388,2601,369,435,700,808,87

Buy:1030,1055,1299,1833,700,2318,6869

Options 做了: Short Put 2018,1299,2007,2601,1088,823,1336,19,700

在升幅不足時，賣出正股改用Short Put，一來減低成本，食時間值，在區間市尤其適用，只可惜IV偏低，有輸Vega的風險，注碼少一點就可以。

S-REITS 除了RWOU 之外，全部高位，所以左側加了RWOU，之後就….. 幸好之前參加了供股的BTOU表現很好，offset 一部分損失。

美股加了BABA, NET, MSFT, STOR, 減少少BA

今個月终於決定進軍海外樓，另文再寫

十月操作

經過九月急跌及十月初一連串事件後，倉位極度受壓，尤其是倉中的本地REITS和Rw0U，捱過了第一星期，大市冇無量下跌，Trade Deal 同 Brexit 初步有好消息，先用恆生，友邦，中人壽的遠價遠期Short Put 打穩陣波，及後人仔回仔，內房新城碧桂園浮上水面，本地地產有初步回穩，加了1997,435,808,2778, Short Put 了19，由2388轉2318，leverage 上升到1.3，轉守為攻，及後再加了3883，1299，Long Call 2318，1810，超遠期386。希望十一月順勢行一段，全年可達標。

S REITS，減了五分一M44u 立即就衝上1.7，無奈。在1.26加了Rw0u 希望這個高換低動作可以提升Yeild。BTOU 參與了供股再額外申請多少少，這隻慢慢壯大。

美股主力是BABA, STOR 出力，冇大動作了。慢牛波幅小，一動不如一靜。

第三季结

第三季组合因本地，中美，Brexit 内外夾擊，跌了6.93%。最傷是一路支持組合又重倉的本地Reits 大跌。地產一纇已帶夾-4.47%。期權帶來0.25%回報。

本季新加了GEO一條直債。期權主力做Short Side也多次成功。美股比重再調高

七月結

大市在六月初在26800 水平見底，七月上破不了29000。組合加了的700,2601,3883回報不錯。386,2007 捱緊。


本月组合: -2.05% 相對恆指 -2.3% 的跌幅低。

REITS 也守不住，逆減息下跌，會考慮加倉。

700 正股+Short Put 雙嬴, 2601正股Ok，2628 Short Put 平了, 1093 Short Put 平了一手。

美股方面，BABA表現OK。Store Capital 繼續Hold 同AMD 正股Short Call 也在業績後平了。

S REITS 繼續升，下次派息會用作還Margin 息。

Bonds 作出了第一次買入。

UK Reits 加了BLND

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六月結

大市在六月初在26800 水平見底，組合成功加了700,2601,3883,386,2007。月尾G20習特會也有正面消息，而美股先一步炒減息回升了。


本月组合: +5.83% 相對恆指 + 6.69% 的升幅低。

特步回升了，正通還在低位幸好倉位很少，建滔損失比較大因倉位不少，但已近殘值下半年希望好轉，中飛就希望下半年減息有機會再上。長和Short Put 成功平手走了。新創建繼續失望。

700 正股+Short Put 雙嬴, 2601正股Ok，2628 Short Put 也有利潤, 1093 Short Put 平了兩手。

美股方面，BABA 依計劃開始建倉。也加了Store Capital 同AMD。

S REITS 繼續升，下次派息會用作還Margin 息。

69,612,616 之我感

本星期因香港的情况，感到傷心，失望及憤怒。

一路以來也偏向政治冷感，但今次逃犯條例因影響每一個人就不得關注。政府的一意孤行，意見接受態度照舊，令人心寒。

有人鬧學生612暴力，但政府百萬人遊行也不理，照硬推上馬。老實說如果不是製造混亂去阻止，今天條例已經通過了。萬事也有因果。

每個人也從自身情况去看事情。中老年人經歷了香港最美好的時代，名成利就，自然希望現狀維持下去。年青人面對物價飛升，學位QE，國内精英的競爭，自然灰心，當失望成了絕望，自然希望打破困境。所以他們自然就會對立。

政治就是妥協的藝術，只有一人行前一步才有可能化解，希望有大智慧者領導香港。

天佑我城

五月結

五月由一開始恆指超過三萬點，一支大陰燭二千七百九十點，打穿了保歷加通道月線中線。固然是因為貿易戰重啓，再來加深環球經濟的憂慮。華為的事件更打擊了科技板瑰，組合冇可避免受到一定的傷害。

本月组合:-5.97% 相對恆指 -8.41% 的跌幅只是輕微好少少。

港股方面未有在跌八百點那一天狠心斬倉，令组合損失比預期大。特步，正通，建滔，中飛，二三線股是潮退時好難捱。長和也因Brexit 回落但因估值低，也可以守。新創建也十分失望，發揮不了避險功能。比較好是在高位走了平保再Long Put。Long Put 恆生也成功。

组合了700 正股+Short Put, 2601正股，2628 Short Put, 1093 Short Put

2388 Short Put 結算接了兩手，再在30元再Short Put。

美股方面，由於與港股有時間差，也成功在相對高位走了 AAPL, MSFT, V, NVDA, GOOS, BABA。BABA 業績大好，在165元開始建倉。

S REITS 加了Manulife US Reits 增加了美國房地產的Exposure

五月過山車

五月開局本來一片光明，不過貪勝不知輸，月初睇指數有上升動力，一路有做的指數熊跨就想等上到30500先開，結果比特Thanos突襲，一個星期跌左3.74%。而家美股減了六成倉位，港股因二線股跌幅已近殘價而且注碼有控制暫時要坐，平保因為季績大好再在高位追回一半，而家買了LP作保險。長和就已經價殘，SP@77.5如果入價就接。所有REITS繼續坐同以股代息，新加了BTOU作為美國REITS的Exposure。

貿戰不知會怎樣，經過上次美股後來追跌的經驗，只剩四成倉位，而家是比較輕鬆，再看看後續發展再決定補回。

今次突襲基本上硬食了，學費交了當然要寫低佢:

1. 四月時因组合跑輸HSI，心急加了長和，同幾隻二線股，果然財不入急門。

2. 對冲不可以等最高位做，因為目的是保險而非希望賺錢。

3. 星期一基本上反應不來，應果斷減倉，貪心想博假跌。

4. 今次冇用指數期權，有了上年經驗，市場混亂時，指數完全可以亂Chok。今次用自己倉位的OTM LP 買保險就算了。

政治市基本上冇得估，不過利息就一定冇得升，再有可能放水。倉位會繼續高息股，REITS，Baby Bonds. 再跌就找本地股買或SP。

HK: 16, 27, 2, 2318, 2601, 2388, 11, 1299, 700, 1030,

S-REITS: RW0U, M44U, Me8U, BTOU

US: Visa, AMZN, GOOS, MSFT, APPL, NVDA, CRM, WDAY

四月結

四月組合回報 1.54%，跑輸恆指2.25%

四月一開局因PMI 超預期，突破了三萬點，見今年高位，遇上阻力結果在高位徘。700 一度見$400，之後就小幅回落。地產及REITS也回落了導致本月回報跑輸了。幸好白雲山同平保一路強勢拉高了组合。特步、長和、建滔板、泓富、新創建表現最差。

期權方面，止賺了長汽銀娛的SP. Long Call 恆大有收獲。

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Tencent 分析

2018 EPS 9.525 HKD。Profit Margin 最高的遊戲業務增幅減少至大約15%，網絡廣告同其他收入保特高速增長，但因Profit Margin 較低，利潤提振較少。今年除非食雞有得賺錢，遊戲業務都是低增幅，估計全年EPS 升20%，大約 $11.5，三十倍PE=$345，廿五倍PE=287.5，三十五倍PE=402.5，四十倍PE=460。破四百要有重大利好消息或市場氣氛極熱。

跌破29900

HSI 跌破29900，要風險管理一些，增加現金水平。先平了939 Short Put + Long Call，博追落後失敗，再止賺了平保，大市之後要升必有平保的份，往後必要補回。美股止賺了WDAY，減少少NVDA CRM。減少少攻擊股，提升了現金，往後回調有機會再加。事實上最近價位巳很難買得落手。

保護自己的錢

Whatsapp Group 上轉來XXX公司的廣告，話借一球给他們一年有八厘是fixed Income 的product。其實蝦人唔識，冇抵押冇評级冇第二市場冇公司盤數睇，講個信字借一球，要買我寧願信女首富買恆大債，10.5厘啊。希望唔是迷債翻版。投資千萬要小心，保護本金最重要。

四月第一星期

四月一開始港股就因PMI好過預期勁升超過一千點。組合這一浪開始跟唔上。主要是主力的Reits回氣，指數股只有平保同中銀香港力挺。

平了1109,27,2333的Short Put，清了1038換了長和同新創建。2588竟然大幅回升，息率也未免低了一點，之前沽了選擇了中飛以乎要再等一下。正通同建滔板也有回升。加了808,特步。Short Put 了 2388,939,1。短炒1030也失敗。暫時再冇動作，美股S-Reits 也是等業績。

組合MTD + 1.28%
HSI MTD  + 3.53%

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三月結

三月份中美談判繼續加時，Brexit未有結果似乎又是加時。三月份出現了兩次警號，第一次是中美談判不明朗加大行唱淡，結果極速以島形回升，第二次是美國三月同十年國債息率倒掛結果又無事。似乎甚有狼來了的意味，相信第三或第四次警號之後就會認真調整一次二千至三千點。策略上手上股票暫時不估頂，期權以保守行使價為主，月中睇位以熊跨作對冲部置，大约在29500-29600之間。可以換貨但不可加注，四月尾減所有投機注碼。

市場仍然是高息股作主題，由加息變減息，重要歐洲唔知會唔會刻水，Smart Money 追逐可靠的yield回報仍然是往多的炒作主題。 5G暫時也靜下來了，有機會再作部置。

組合三月回報4.28%。

港股方面，回報主要由一堆Reits帶動，加上太古B同白雲山業绩被市場受落升了不小。太古B因國泰表現好轉再加派息，相信再有得去，期望同太古A折讓收窄。

交易方面，賣出了一手長建換了領展。短炒6869，384，2588，冇收獲。其中6869一走了就崩 盤極為好彩。投機部分入了新城博破頂，一有風吹草動就要走。中長線入了正通同建滔。659，1848，369，就是認為市場會向次一级收息股進發。平保就是業績帶動。

一堆S-Reits 連連破頂，加注的機會都冇。今個月硬加了ME8U

美股方面，加倉了AAPL, BA, BABA, CRM, GOOG,MSFT,NVDA,VISA,WDAY, 平了GOOS 同XNET。基本上暫時也不再加了。

平安2018的業績

平安的業績真令人吃驚
 
內含價值10,024.56億
新業務價值 722.94億

公司價值 = (10024億+723X10) / 0.854 = 20203.74億
A+H 182.8億股

極值20203.74/182.8=$HKD110.5
殘值10024/0.854/182.8=$HKD64.2

 現價合理

SHK 16 分析

16 号仔，多年估值上下限不大，要提高回報就要盡量買在估值底部。用Price / NAV model 計

如今年估值上限 186 * 0.76 = 141.36
            估值下限 186 * 0.58 = 107.88

現價130 水位有限

IB 二月結

又一個月過去，大市繼續挾淡倉，中間冇明顯回調。上到BB中線，最高穿過29000，由一月低位已升超4000 點。

組合二月Return 3.21%，跑贏恆指 2.71%, S&P500 2.95%, 跑輸DJA 3.66% ,  NASDAQ 3.44%

佔组合貢獻最大是 1038 3.31%, SSW PRH 8.04%, SSW PRI 5.73%, 435 6.96%, 2778 5.55%, 2388 8.97%

美股方面 Visa 9.62%, GOOS 10.63%,  BABA 8.06%, XNET 18.22%

Options 表現差勁，二月MHI Hedging 27400/27600 變廢紙，GOOS Long Call 61.5 打巴，電能Long Call 應用價內下月，用OTM 即月結果得 56 蚊。


本月Trading ，再做三月Hedge 27800/28000
5G 短炒2342, 947,732 收 $1058
S-Reits 加了 2000 RW0U@1.24, 3000 M44U@1.37

美股 AAPL@174.2, BABA@182.8, C.PRN@ 26.2, SSW PRH@ 22.3, SSW PRI@ 22.5, VCLT@88.04, XNET@3.96

本月Missed Chance 3147, 6869, 1883


Fed Dividends, AAPL + RWOU = HKD140.67
Interest Paid = HKD 164.26
Option Fee = HKD 25

期內435, 2778 業績理想，由778換馬再加注正確。405負債增加。823繼續升到開花。


三月展望
2018 Short June Put 38@1.89
 27 ~50-51
16~ 120-122
700~310
如果去到29500再加淡

IB YTD Result

Period: 2 Jan --- 6 Feb
Cumulative Return 8.77%

Trade Summary:
Options ( Short Put 2388, 11, 1868, LC 1810, Bear Spread)

Short put all win, LC cut half, Bear Spread all lost

Buy:
1658, 2342, 2778, 435, M44u, Rw0U, AAPL, BABA, C PRN, GOOS, HSBC PRA, NOK, SSW PRH, V

Sell:
778 

Net increase exposure = 112407

Dividends, 1069.54 from SSW

Interest Payment: -272.37

Fee -50

Impression:
Benefit from change of interest hike expectation, high yield dividend stock show V shape rebounce. The beta can catch up with HSI despite holding some cash position. Starting to accumulate US stocks. Add bear spread at January end to hedge the position.

IB 2018 Annual Report

Year End Return = -6.4%

Stock -6044 (Mainly related to SSW Preferred Stock. The price has back to baseline after the stabilization of US market and federal rate hike tension released

Stock Options + 232 Not much gain or loss, mainly use long side

Index Options -12982 (Bet too much using HSI, skills and mentality cannot handle) Use spread and MHI to reduce volatility

Dividends 1956

Interest -66.4